Course history

The zloty has gone through many phases since the currency was put into circulation. Political and economic changes and central bank interventions have had a huge impact on its value in relation to other currencies. Polish's transition to a market economy in the 1990s and subsequent integration with the European Union are key moments that marked the history of the zloty.

In recent decades, an increase in the stability of the zloty has been observed, which results both from the maturation of the Polish economy and the corrective actions of the National Bank of Poland. Despite this stabilization, the zloty exchange rate continues to react to internal and international events, showing how important it is to understand the history of the currency in order to predict its future movements.

In response to changing economic conditions and inflation, new denominations of banknotes and coins have been introduced several times in the history of the Polish currency. These are important events that were aimed at facilitating everyday transactions and providing greater convenience in money trading.

Since the 90s of the twentieth century, banknotes with values such as 200 or 500 zlotys have become a standard element of the wallets of Polish citizens. The demand for large-denomination banknotes was particularly evident in the periods before the stabilisation of the currency, reflecting the current state of the economy and price levels. The issuance of these denominations also responded to the needs of the market, which required more practical solutions in everyday transactions, which we discuss in detail at Webinar Universe.

The issuance of the PLN 500 banknote in February 2017 was a response to the needs of the financial system and the growing economy. Although today, in the era of increasingly popular cashless payments, the demand for having large amounts of cash is decreasing, the new denominations are an expression of the adaptation of the country's monetary system to the current economic situation, which we often discuss during online trainings.

Top currency pairs

The PLN/EUR pair is one of the key ones for investors interested in the zloty, given that the European Union is Polish's main trading partner. Changes in the exchange rate of this pair are closely related to Polish exports and imports, which makes it an important indicator for the economy.

The PLN/USD pair also plays an important role, especially since the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, as well as an indicator of global economic and political tensions. The value of the zloty against the dollar significantly affects the cost of imported goods and the price of raw materials on global markets.

Other important currency pairs for the zloty are PLN/GBP and PLN/CHF. The political situation in the United Kingdom, including Brexit or the monetary policy of Switzerland, have a direct impact on these exchange rates, and thus on the interests of Polish investors.

Costs resulting from changes in exchange rates

Changes in currency pairs such as PLN/EUR, PLN/USD, PLN/GBP, or PLN/CHF have a direct impact on the economy and can generate various costs for businesses and consumers, which we explain in Webinar Universe.

For companies operating on the international market, changes in exchange rates are particularly important. An increase in the value of the zloty (PLN) against currencies such as the euro (EUR) or the US dollar (USD) may reduce the cost of imports, but at the same time deteriorate the price competitiveness of Polish exporters' products on foreign markets. On the other hand, the depreciation of the zloty against other currencies increases the cost of imported oil, gas and other raw materials, which may lead to an increase in the prices of domestic products and services.

For consumers, changes in exchange rates are important mainly in the context of foreign travel, purchase of imported products, or investments in currencies. The weakening of the zloty makes foreign holidays, electronics or clothing more expensive. On the other hand, the strengthening of the zloty may contribute to a reduction in the prices of these goods and services.

Course Factors

The factors affecting the zloty exchange rate are diverse and include both macroeconomic aspects and country-specific events. Economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation, unemployment or Polish's trade balance, have a direct impact on the value of the zloty. Changes in these indicators are often interpreted by the markets as signals about the future value of a currency.

The monetary policy pursued by the National Bank of Poland, especially the decisions regarding interest rates, is another important factor. Raising interest rates, assuming the stability of other conditions, may attract foreign capital, which strengthens the zloty. However, these decisions must take into account the global monetary and economic context.

The zloty exchange rate is also influenced by external factors, such as sentiment on global markets, geopolitical conflicts or global economic crises. Their impact could be seen, among others, during the financial crisis in 2008 or during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Future predictions

Predicting future exchange rates is challenging and requires analysis of many variables. In the case of the zloty, analysts point to the long-term projections of Polish's economic growth, planned structural reforms and the monetary strategy of the National Bank of Poland. Political stability in the country and region is also an important factor that can affect the value of the zloty.

In the face of increasing globalization and economic interdependence, predictions regarding the zloty exchange rate must also take into account global factors, such as the monetary policy of the world's major central banks or geopolitical tensions. Traders who follow these indicators can better prepare for potential price movements.

On the other hand, technological developments, especially within financial markets, introduce new analytical tools and forecasting models that can help you better understand market trends. For this purpose, concepts such as technical analysis and fundamental analysis are key components of a forex trading strategy.

Understanding the exchange rate, and the zloty in particular, requires an in-depth analysis of many variables, both local and global. The history of the rate, important currency pairs, price factors and predictions for the future form the basis for any investor interested in the Forex market, which is exactly what we talk about at Webinar Universe. It is also worth paying attention to current political and economic events that may affect exchange rate fluctuations. By analyzing these factors, you can better predict how exchange rates may change in the short and long term. Therefore, education and constant monitoring of the market is crucial to success in the foreign exchange and investment market.